Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 55.180965 64.584630 74.810563 86.719222 100.167285 114.843660 132.031336
2024-12-22 37.564927 49.303671 63.272125 80.960901 102.591490 128.001147 159.911603
2024-12-29 30.530061 43.722935 60.515745 83.115296 112.348653 148.472779 196.018439
2025-01-05 24.690905 38.214723 56.476062 82.366880 117.472942 162.697221 224.519908
2025-01-12 22.228889 36.682949 57.163464 87.436753 130.032744 186.700126 266.438615
2025-01-19 17.620400 31.217984 51.526920 82.921242 128.856184 192.048756 283.655434
2025-01-26 15.757915 29.590937 51.151437 85.689647 137.798035 211.367745 320.475961
2025-02-02 14.820773 29.275530 52.647119 91.236277 150.972493 237.147245 367.368275
2025-02-09 13.400200 27.904668 52.262922 93.741371 159.636910 256.764312 406.290101
2025-02-16 11.986631 26.315339 51.299356 95.146336 166.573215 274.046025 442.448719
2025-02-23 10.546700 24.443426 49.615768 95.148992 171.188962 287.942739 474.068394
2025-03-02 9.299400 22.738918 48.008238 95.071265 175.554884 301.524785 505.625400
2025-03-09 8.180564 21.260859 46.909047 96.252118 182.864986 321.288726 549.533354
2025-03-16 6.352592 17.927698 41.929471 90.109663 177.582842 321.167341 563.246362
2025-03-23 5.694082 17.072313 41.641177 92.477422 186.991357 345.049813 615.662153
2025-03-30 4.843728 15.564561 39.797575 91.660456 190.639016 359.564566 653.647464
2025-04-06 4.618134 15.581491 41.164142 97.200359 206.064310 394.430146 726.049200
2025-04-13 3.667839 13.443656 37.504388 92.266548 201.797681 395.586800 742.967608
2025-04-20 3.366452 13.043619 37.716077 95.291867 212.633318 423.220654 805.070381
2025-04-27 3.266765 13.220746 39.302857 101.348987 229.625636 462.340206 887.986135
2025-05-04 2.991151 12.789763 39.358120 104.082870 240.275060 490.637655 953.422313
2025-05-11 2.686191 12.185622 38.896181 105.615686 248.607339 515.095795 1013.082587
2025-05-18 2.350903 11.384008 37.809249 105.618584 253.823844 534.072998 1063.831331